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Trumpf won 2016 in all four states, and a defeat on Tuesday would have made it difficult for him to shorten the way to 270 votes in each of those states.
Surveys conducted in the run-up to the election campaign show that the presidential campaign has changed little compared to previous CNN polls in the different states.
Opinion polls show that Biden has a great advantage over voters who have already voted by mail or in advance, with the advantage being largely in the hands of those who have not yet voted. The size of this block of subsequent voters can dictate the outcome of the race.
In Arizona and Wisconsin the results roughly match the average of the latest quality polls for this race. A study in Arizona shows a race within a sampling error of the study, with the Biden support being between 50 and 46% higher. In Wisconsin, Biden leads with 52% against 44% for Trump.
Look at the Trump and Biden research from head to toe.
The result for North Carolina shows that Biden is slightly ahead of Trump – 51% to 45%, just behind the 4-point sampling error. The average poll in North Carolina points to a slightly tougher presidential race than the new poll, although this week’s NBC News/Marist College poll also showed that Biden has a narrow lead.
In Michigan, the results show a broader range than most public opinion polls, from 53% for Biden to 41% for Capricorn, but the results for each candidate are within the uncertainty of the poll about the average support for that candidate’s score.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, white voters make up a larger percentage of the population than in Arizona or North Carolina, and they also support Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin more often than in Arizona or North Carolina. White voters with higher education in the two northern states support Biden by a particularly wide margin, with 61 percent in Michigan and Wisconsin supporting the former vice president, compared with about half in Arizona (50 percent) and North Carolina (51 percent). Most white voters without a university degree returned to Trump, with the strongest support from this group. He came to North Carolina, where 64 percent of those questioned returned to the president.
There are significant gender differences between the four states, with 55 percent or more women supporting Biden in each state, while men in North Carolina and Arizona hold the trump card and are equally distributed between Michigan and Wisconsin.
On the two defining issues of the election campaign for 2020 – the economy and the coronavirus pandemic – voters are divided over which candidate would be best suited for the job. Biden has a big advantage because it has more confidence in the event of an outbreak of the coronavirus in all four states, with a 7-point margin on the case in Arizona, the narrowest margin. Voters in Arizona and North Carolina prefer to see the economy in the hands of Trump (54% Trump vs. 43% Biden in Arizona, 51% Trump vs. 46% Biden in North Carolina), and both candidates even in Michigan (49% Trump vs. 48% Biden) and Wisconsin (49% Trump vs. 48% Trump), although preferences are more varied.
However, voters in all four states are likely to disapprove of Trump’s performance as president, with opposition ranging from 51% in Arizona to 56% in Michigan.
In all four states, opposition supporters generally vote for the president. In each poll, more than 7 in 10 voters say they vote for Trumps than against Biden (79 percent in Wisconsin, 77 percent in Arizona and Michigan, and 71 percent in North Carolina). But among Biden’s followers, he’s rather divided. Most Wisconsin residents say they vote for the former vice president (52 percent), not against Trump (43 percent), but the figures show an equal distribution in Arizona (48 percent against Trump, 45 percent against Biden), Michigan (47 percent for Biden, 43 percent against Trump) and North Carolina (45 percent for Biden, 43 percent against Trump).
In all four states Biden has advantages as a more sensitive candidate and more inclined to unite the country. Voters in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin believe Biden has more than a clear plan to solve the nation’s problems. In Arizona, voters are so divided between the two candidates. And voters in three states – Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin – are almost equally divided about who should protect Americans from danger. Trumpf has an advantage in Arizona and Wisconsin as a candidate with stamina and insight for the presidency, while voters in North Carolina and Michigan are divided on the issue.
Three of these states have also watched the Senate matches closely. In Arizona and Michigan polls show a democratic advantage. In Arizona, 52 percent of returning Democratic candidates were Mark Kelly and 45 percent of returning Republican Senator Martha McSally. In Michigan, 52 percent of returning Democrats are Senator Gary Peters, 40 percent are Republican challenger John James. In North Carolina, however, the race is almost tied, with 47% behind Democrat Cal Cunningham and 44% support from incumbent Republican Senator Tom Tillis.
North Carolina will also elect its governor this year, and in this race Democratic Governor Roy Cooper has a clear advantage over his Republican challenger Dan Forest – 52% to 42%.
CNN surveys in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin were conducted from November 23 to 30. October by phone with samples of about 1000 adults in each state. Among them were 865 likely voters in Arizona, 907 likely voters in Michigan, 901 likely voters in North Carolina and 873 likely voters in Wisconsin. The results among likely voters show a sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points in Arizona, 3.8 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in North Carolina and 3.9 points in Wisconsin. It’s higher in the subgroups.
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