mollyfamwatAccording to ESPN’s statistics and information group, there are currently 11 teams with at least 4% chance of achieving university football qualifications: Alabama (88%), Ohio (85%), Clemenson (72%), Wisconsin (40%), Georgia (27%), Notre Dame (25%), Oregon (18%), USA (15%), BYu (14%), Cincinnati (5%) and Florida (4%).
Even though we’re actually talking about three big, well-known favorites and all the others, the list is still pretty incredible when you think about it – there’s the CAA team, the non-Large Indians, and two teams that haven’t even started their bloody season yet, plus the 12th team on the list since last year. The team on the list is Indiana! But yes, 2020 is an incredible year.
(Amazing doesn’t necessarily mean good, does it?)
In the race for the title there are all kinds of obstacles, both predictable and unpredictable, and the biggest problems that any team now faces are a combination of both. Let’s take a look at each of the major competitors and the category The Greatest Barrier, where each of them fits perfectly.
A quick word: We will not discuss Wisconsin at this time. Badgers are worshipped by the SP+ and ESPN Football Power Index, but given the magnitude of their coronavirus problems and the fact that we don’t know if they can realistically play again or not, it seems terribly strange to talk about common problems on the pitch. As soon as they’re back on the field, we’ll resume our conversation with the badgers.
Candidates against complaint
State of Ohio
Recording: 2-0 evaluation : First in SP+ and IPI
The season opener in Ohio could be prevented from defeating the state of Nebraska thanks to a few tricks. Of course the Buckeyes generally looked very good and won, but the running backs were not very effective and Nebraska’s attack was very efficient, especially in the first half. Will the rebuilt Buckeye line of defense play at the level we expect? Have there been too many USO cutbacks in recent years?
Fault! The file name is not specified. The state of Ohio is a favorite in all other races and should be careful not to become complacent. Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
As far as we know, this could be an in-season problem. But unlike statistically their best opponent of the season, Ohio not only kept Penn State at bay throughout the game, but they did so at the same time, which made the ball come out well and the PSU could not do the same. Ohio had a solid success rate of 46% and keeps the Penn at an astonishing 23%. The PSU quickly abandoned the game along the way and the rebuilt Buckeyes pass rushed into a one-dimensional attack and shot Sean Clifford five times (Tommy Togiai had three).
The statistics were somewhat just after the dominant first half of the year, but the result was never balanced. The Buckeyes have started cruising and are now facing a regular season result, with their lowest expected profit probability of 85% according to SP+. In the next six weeks they will get an average preference of 28.1 points. There are distortions and injuries, and you can never say that the team is guaranteed to win a certain number of matches, but with the exception of the plot twist – specialty 2020 – Ohio’s biggest opponent will be each other, and the game for the Big Ten title is complacency. If the Buckies bring their A-game, they won’t get hit.
Competitors against injury
Alabama
Recording : 6-0 : Second place in SP+ and IPI
Because of the enormous transcendental potential I have named the Alabama receiver Jaylen Waddle as one of my key players in the pursuit of the CFP.
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In the beginning of the season he crossed the threshold and gained 557 meters in just 25 traps and scored four touchdowns. But unfortunately for all of us he probably lost the season due to an ankle injury in the first game of Tennessee on January 24th. October.
Alabama hadn’t missed it yet – in his absence, Tide took over the states of Tennessee and Mississippi 89-17, and Mac Jones scored 49 of 62 passes in 678 yards and four touchdowns. DeVonte Smith scored 18 goals in 276 meters and four points in two games, John Metchie III scored 169 goals and Slade Bolden, who now flies in a corner, scored 114 goals and nine points.
Just like Ohio, Alabama has a strong preference for all other regular season games. However, it is assumed that between one SEC game and one or two CFP games, Metchi, Bolden or a younger player who has not yet taken part in the rotation, a number of important matches have to be played. It would be nice to have the youngsters repeat themselves from time to time, but it may take a while before we know what Tide Miss Waddle is like.
Clemenson
Recording: 7-0 evaluation: Third in PIP, fourth in SP+.
Yeah, we think Trevor Lawrence’s diagnosis of the coronavirus is traumatic. It’s embarrassing, but it’s 2020.
Lawrence’s absence against Boston College introduced us to Baby Cam. The new D.J. Ouiagalei, who is 5’8 and weighs 250 pounds, made 30 of 41 passes in 342 yards and two points, took just one bag against a solid BC pass, and stormed another five times in 38 yards and TD. These shots included a few quarters and a fourth, including the perfect zone player, who scored 30 yards per point.
Fault! The file name is not specified. Clemson will have to make it without star quarterback Trevor Lawrence as the Tigers take on Notre Dame, the best team on their calendar. Ken Ruinard/Photopool by AP
Clemson led British Columbia to second place with 28-10 and then scored the last 24 points to win. The backlog had little to do with the Ouiagalei – it was more due to three BC touchdowns in four moves and a 97-yard return by Travis Etienne Fumble. In total, Etienne (seven catches at 140 yards) and Cornell Powell (11 at 105) gave Uiagalea a pair of first-class safety blankets, and when all the others failed, he was able to throw his big carcass forward a few yards. A comparison of Cam Newton is unfair to everyone, but it is difficult not to see at least the potential of Cam Newton in this set of safe values.
Today, the level of difficulty is increasing. Notre Dame is the best team, with the best defense Clemson left on the field. It’s probably best for the Irish to remember Etienne’s escape into the backfield. They’ll probably report on Clemson’s unproven reception building. Ouiagalei will have to make harder shots in narrower windows and may have to rely more on his legs. There’s a chance he’ll do it brilliantly, but it’s still a test he’ll have to pass.
Candidates play against the elite of the buyers
Georgia
Recording : Rating 4-1 : Fifth at IFP, sixth at SP+.
It’s nice to have the best protection in a country you can count on. Georgia scored early in the first and second half of Saturday in Kentucky touchdowns and that was more than enough for a 14-3 victory for the Dawgs. They held Kentucky at 229 city yards (3.6 per game), Stetson Bennett tried to make only 13 passes, and Georgia stayed as vanilla as possible on its way to Saturday’s game against Florida with a big rivalry.
Technically, Bennett’s statistical line was good. In the first quarter he scored 9:13 for 131 yards and scored two yards in the rush. But he also threw two stones, and let’s go back to what I said after Georgia’s defeat by Alabama:
Against teams worse than Alabama, Bennett was able to come out and play fairly easily using a great special unit to ensure excellent defense and a good position in the field. He could continue to do so until the end of the season – Florida is the only remaining opponent in the top 20 SP+ and he could easily lead Georgia to a 9-1 record. But Bama will probably wait for the SEC championship game, and there is no real reason to believe that Bennett will live a second better life. … A smart guy might have to try his luck with a player with higher ceilings and lower floors, whether it’s [J.T.] Daniels or [D’wan] Mathis (probably Daniels), if he wants to go from 9-1 to 10-1 and get into the university play-offs.
I didn’t see anything against Kentucky that would change my mind. And if Saturday’s victory over Missouri somehow indicates that Florida’s defense is also up.
Our Lady
Recording : 6-0 : Sixth in IPI, seventh in SP+.
Ian Book has mastered the art of the beautiful game of quarterbacking. Okay, even. In 2018 he took 12th place. He also helped to lead Notre Dame to the PCP, and last year he became the 19th general of the PCP. He’s 17 this year.
Is that enough for the challenger? Every year school football becomes a quarterback sport. Three other KBB qualifications in 2018 resulted in first place (Kyler Murray), second place (Tua Tagovayloa) and eighth place (newcomer Trevor Lawrence) in the overall KBB ranking. All of last year’s CFP-KBs were in the top five, and this year’s top three are currently first (Justin Fields), second (Jones) and seventh (Lawrence).
Fault! The file name is not specified. Can Ian Book make the big steps needed when Notre Dame Clemson plays in the biggest regular season game of his final year of high school? Justin Burle/Getty Pictures
The biggest competition of the last year of the book in the regular season is accompanied by an interesting moment. Notre Dame will receive Clemson Uiagalelei, not Lawrence, which means the book is the most tried and tested book design agency in the game. In order to qualify for the PCP, the Irish will probably have to share two games against the Tigers, but this is a moment for the Notre Dame.
The Irish have been extremely tough so far this year (22nd place in running speed in standard crashes, 9th place in passing), but you won’t beat Clemson with a one-dimensional game. Can the book, if necessary, make a big pass to Javon McKinley or Ben Scouroneck for a transfusion on the field to tighten the bond between Michael Mayer and Tommy Trembl or Avery Davis receiver in the big third pass? Notre Dame’s defense is dynamic, occupies eighth place in the SP+ defense and has five out of six opponents with 13 points or less. But to beat Clemson, you have to score, and Book’s latest record against first-class defense – 69.7 points for an assist against Michigan 2019, 83.7 points against Clemson 2018, 116.4 points against Georgia 2019 – isn’t much. It’s time to change that.
Applicant at actual start of season
Oregon and USC
The files: 0-0 : Oregon is ranked 10th in IPI and 14th in SP+, RSC 11th in IPI and 15th in SP+.
Of the teams we considered potential opponents in the preseason, most were soon brought face to face with each other. Oklahoma and Texas played well against the wrong teams in their first games and were bombed shortly after. Auburn was good in the first game, terrible in the second. Texas A&M shook in the first game and was played by Bama’d. LSU fell on his face immediately. The state of Pennsylvania got Indiana.
The only teams that have taken on this role from the beginning and are still doing so are generally Ohio, Alabama, Clemenson and perhaps Georgia. All the others burned pretty quickly because of their flaws.
Are Oregon or Bama-Clemson ODU vintages? You’ll probably have to get close enough to get a table in the Pac-12 and fight seriously for the GFP pier. The Pac 12 champion with a defeat could certainly qualify with a few breaks, but the odds are good for a 7-0 race.
According to SP+, Oregon (vs. Stanford) and RSC (Arizona) start their season with the second best opponent in their respective games. Both are healthy favorites, but neither can afford to relax. This can be difficult because both teams have to balance one unit (Oregon defense, USC attack) and the unit opposite the rebuilt unit. Could Joe Murhead’s protection work in Oregon and Todd Orlando? The latter will have to be put to the test next Saturday, as it will have to face the dangerous quarterback Jaden Daniels and the Arizona attack that also took over this offseason.
Claimant vs. Surprisingly Imperfect Defence
Florida
Recording : 3-1
Evaluation : Fifth in SP+, ninth in PIP.
In three games before the two-week break, Florida has gathered an amazing variety of strengths and weaknesses. The alligators were better on the attack than we could have imagined. They ranked second in terms of points per disc and sixth in terms of the degree of success, while their average score was more than 42 points per match. But the defense has bombed. Florida finished third in the SP+ defensive standings due to a combination of recent success and strong rebound, but the Gators came into the game last week and Missouri came in 94th place with an acceptable success rate and an 89th place on each pass. It is already a fatal mistake that has brought the loss of Texas A&M to 41-38; will it soon strip them of any claim to a title?
Fault! The file name is not specified. The Floridadefense improved significantly from the first three alligator games of the season on Saturday to win against Missouri. AP Photo/John Rau
The road to the PCP is still pretty difficult – it will almost certainly be a win against Georgia next week and Alabama in a hypothetical SEC championship game – but Florida looked almost as good as any other country in the loss of Saturday 41-17 in Missouri. Kyle Trask has passed on nine different players and four touchdowns on a 345-yard line. A so far dubious passing frenzy allowed Connor Baselak Mizza to make three passes and Florida to more than double the Tigers’ lead, 514-248. Mizzo stayed within the 24th quarter of the year due to a record second quarter and a late landing in the waste season.
Mizzou has an average of 5.7 yards per game, but only managed 3.9 yards in Gainesville from 3.1 to 3 quarters. Is the crocodile guard locked? Because if that’s the case, Florida’s back in the game.
But if the 2020 season has taught us anything, it is that a team has to prove itself more than once. Right, Michigan? What about Texas? What about Oklahoma? AND LSU? And so on and so forth?
Candidates against institutional bias
Cincinnati and BYU
The files: Cincinnati – 5-0; BYU – 7-0
: Cincinnati is ranked 9th in SP+ and 19th in IPI; BYU is ranked 12th in SP+ and 17th in IPI.
I’ve written it many times, but it will always be true: The CFP Commission more or less abandoned the game in 2017. The 18th. November of the same season beat the CFP with an unprecedented 15th place. First place in the PCP Temple ranking, which ended 71st with a score of 45:19 in SC+. On the same day, the 16 beat Racket of Mississippi Arkansas (SP+ last place – 63rd) with 28:21 with two late touchdowns. Next Tuesday, UCF will remain in 15th place in the GVB standings, while the State of Mississippi will move up to 14th place with three losses.
Despite its unbridled form and invincible record, UCF 2017 may not be able to go beyond the twelfth anniversary of its foundation. In the Peach Bowl, the Knights defeated the Auburn team that knocked out Alabama and Georgia. In 2018 the Knights won another 12 games in a row – and finished eighth.
Choose the winner of 10 school soccer games per week. Play directly or with confidence. Make your choice
It’s hard to imagine that the committee ever took the outside team seriously enough to get into the top seven or so, let alone the top four. But it is also hard to imagine a better time this year for a race in the Major Average and BYU and Cincinnati.
Bears and panthers appear in November in sparse form. They take the 9th or 12th place in the CE+. This despite the fact that they are still limited by the predictions of the preseason, which puts them on the 33rd and 53rd place. Both will come at the end of the regular season without playing with power-conference teams, but both did what they were asked to do, and some did.
A few years ago I created a measure called SP+-Lebenslauf. They will obtain your CV by looking at the teams you have played against and extrapolating what the average SP+ team in the top five (in terms of difference in scored points) would achieve compared to this table. Then he’ll compare it to what you actually produced.
The following is the current summary of the SP+ ranking of teams that have played at least two matches (sorry, Wisconsin) :
1. Ohio State (+10.6 PPG more than the average of the top five teams on their game plan)
2. Alabama (+5,4)
3. Cincinnati (+2.4)
4. Clemson (+0,7)
5. BYTE (-0.9)
Notre Dame (-2.3) ranks sixth, Georgia (-4.5) eighth. Cincinnati and BYU were able to finish in 59th and 90th place thanks to the power of the SP+ calendar, but they played against the calendar as a top five team or very close. You should be part of this conversation.
The loss of Oklahoma Texas on Saturday was statistically improbable, but it also did Cincy and BYU a great service. If the SEC and the Big Ten only betrayed a team with one or more losses and the Pac-12 didn’t betray an undefeated champion, even with the obvious preferences of the committee, it wouldn’t be crazy if one of these teams ended up in or near the top four. And it would also be justified that they continue to play as before.
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