The Covid-19 news is bad, but there’s room for optimism

When given the opportunity to get vaccinated immediately or later, 50% of Americans say they would get vaccinated as soon as the vaccine is available, compared to 50% later. This is also the highest percentage ever recorded by Ipsos.

The important thing is: No one will accuse you of being depressed about the coronavirus. In total, more than 450,000 people have died from Covid-19, about 100,000 in the last month alone. More than 25 million deaths due to Covid-19 have been reported in America, and countless lives and businesses have been disrupted.

In addition, we do not know exactly what the impact of new variants of the virus will be in terms of cases and deaths in America.

But there is at least reason for optimism. The number of people contracting the coronavirus is falling and the number of people getting vaccinated is rising and will only increase as more and more vaccines become available.

The number of new cases of Covid 19, while still high at about 130,000 on a seven-day moving average (starting on Friday), has fallen sharply in recent weeks. Nationally, there has been a decline of about 30% in the last 14 days. One has to go back about three months to early November to see such a low number of new cases.

In recent weeks, the number of daily cases has dropped in almost every state. In most states, the decline was significant (which was predictable given the national trend).

More importantly, the number of hospitalizations has also dropped. It has dropped by more than 20% in recent weeks.

Reducing the number of hospitalizations is essential because an increase in hospitalizations is usually followed by an increase in deaths.

Right now, the mortality rate is still too high and far from what it was, but if you follow past trends, it will eventually happen.

The fact that the number of cases has fallen more sharply than the number of hospitalizations could mean that the number of hospitalizations could fall even further.

Of course, current trends do not necessarily translate into future business trends.

Currently, however, many more people are vaccinated each day than new cases are added.

A few weeks ago I realized that President Joe Biden’s goal of 100 million cans in 100 days was too modest. The statistics prove it again.

Since Biden’s inception, an average of more than 1.2 million new vaccines have been administered each day.

We want that number to increase. With the two-session schedule required for Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines, we can’t get back to normal anytime soon at 1.2 million vaccinations a day. There are more than 255 million adults in this country.

The good news is that last week a 16% per week increase in vaccines dispensed in the states was announced.

This growth will only increase in the next two months. As a reminder, Pfizer and Moderna together will ship 220 million doses by the end of March. Most of that will be shipped by the end of March, according to Andy Slavitt, White House counsel for the response to Covid 19.

And from that point, the number of doses should only increase, with Pfizer saying there will be a total of 200 million doses in the United States by the end of May and Moderna saying it will reach 200 million doses by the end of June.

Mr. Biden announced that the United States has ordered 200 million additional doses of vaccine from Pfizer and Moderna, to be delivered by the end of the summer.

In addition, Johnson and Johnson has applied for FDA approval of a single-dose emergency vaccine and has stated that 100 million doses will be available by the end of June.

In total, there should be enough vaccine for 300 million people by the end of June, if Johnson & Johnson gets permission for emergency vaccination. Otherwise, it will be until the end of the summer before there is enough vaccine (600 million from Pfizer and Moderna) to vaccinate 300 million people, enough to vaccinate all Americans aged 18 and older.

When vaccines are available, the problem is getting them into American hands. Judging by the number of vaccines administered, we are doing much better than ever.

And while regrettable racial disparities still exist in terms of who is willing to accept it (i.e., blacks and Latinos lag behind), the overall number of people willing to accept it continues to increase in the survey data.

There is a light at the end of a long, dark tunnel. It will take some time, but we have reason to believe we will get there.

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