While this continues to remind us of the clumsy and disorderly response of football academies to the challenges of the coronavirus pandemic, the Coronavirus-inspired Royal Rattle presents a conference for the 2020 season – CCA and the Big 12! This is the SEC! Here come the Big Ten! Grab-12 next! — …allowed us to make first impressions in small batches and respond to them. There’s something to be said for that.
Let’s look through the books of the first week of the Big Ten to see what partial answers the first seven conference games gave us and what we do and don’t have to overreact to get ahead.
Response overestimation: Michigan –Candidate
Michigan 49, Minnesota 24.
The eternal memory of the 2019 season in Michigan ended with a 91-43 victory for the Wolverines in Ohio and Alabama. It was a familiar feeling – they lost the last two games in 2018 103:54 and lost three of the last three games in 2017 and three of the four in 2016. She became a sad and formative part of the Jim Harbau era.
But it distracts us from two things:
1. Last year they usually start the season pretty well.
2. Their attack was excellent in 2019.
In the second half of last season Michigan went from 66th to 21st in the SP+ offensive and discovered a varied and exciting racing game combined with a passing game that was enough for them. But the biggest question for 2020, contrary to custom, is whether it is illegal to smoke in Ohio this time. — a glutton could survive last year’s late growth despite huge sales. Shea Patterson’s quarterback, three of the four main receivers and four starters were eliminated, and while the Masters’ Corps still had a group of spins on the run and brought back Ronnie Bell’s junior receiver, many teenagers had to raise their level of play to continue Michigan’s comeback to O.
Fault! The file name is not specified. Michigan’s victory over Minnesota was exactly the confidence the young but talented Wolverines needed. David Birding/Getty Pictures
The start of the season in Minnesota was the perfect, if not scary, test for all the new parts. That went well.
- Michigan scored 478 yards in just 56 offensive games (8.5 per game). In the Rainbow Age, the Wolverines have never played better than 6.5 per game against an equal opponent.
- The four second-year backfielders Hydra Hassan Haskins and Zack Charbonett, rookie Blake Corum and senior Chris Evans together have 20 carries, 192 yards and four touchdowns. For bonus points, Haskins also brilliantly faked a first attempt at a false hymn in Minnesota.
- Sophomore quarterback Joe Milton kept control and played 15 of 22 passes for 225 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions. He missed a single bag, threw himself seven times from 60 meters and scored another shot.
- Nine different captured wolverines pass the pass, seven of them first or second year students. The clock led with four shots at 74 yards, but four other WRs combined at five times 54, two close outs got three times 41 and two RBs got three times 36.
- Michigan’s defense registered five sacks and five defensive passes (one interception, four breaks) on Tanner Morgan’s 31 passes. Rushod Bateman’s Stargopher had a 38-yard lead, but eight others were led by just 63 yards.
At the end of the first quarter, Michigan took the lead 21-10, extended it to 35-17 in the second quarter and never let Minnesota come close to 11 points. It was this confident performance that the young but clearly talented team needed. The Wolverines played an angry, pointed ball.
Counterpoint: MinnesotaProtection cannot be very good.
The Gophers are expected to rise from 26th to 44th in the SP+ defensive ranking. They would revert to second place after losing most of last year’s holders. One game – 67. Of Michigan’s seven other opponents, only the Maryland defense is weaker. The attitude, physical stamina and use of deep-sea skills have been extremely encouraging for Michigan and second offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, but the challenges will be even greater from now on.
Besides, Michigan’s defense was destructive, but in itself a bit intrusive. Mohamed Ibrahim from Minnesota ran 26 times for 140 yards, and Morgan ran not only 38 yards on Bateman, but also 45 yards on Chris Automan-Bell. Alabama has proven that you can afford a defensive slip-up if your offensive game goes from perfect to elitist, but future data against Wisconsin, Penn and Ohio will tell us what that slip-up is.
Response overestimation: Yes, Ohio is still invincible.
Ohio 52, Nebraska 17.
How did Justin Fields begin his attempt to make peace with Trevor Lawrence of Clemson and Mac Jones of Alabama (and Mertz!) in the Heisman breed? After 20 for 21 at 276 yards and two points. Although he took more bags than Mertz, he threw himself 12 times without bags for 75 meters and without glasses. Chris Olav and Garrett Wilson have joined forces for 13 catches and 233 yards. After Nebraska had collected a number of good shots in the second quarter and tied them on 14-14, Ohio quietly signed 38-3 with Haskers in the last 35 minutes.
Fault! The file name is not specified. – set
Justin Fields throws a few touchdowns and adds another one on the ground as he travels from Ohio to Nebraska.
SC+ was FBS’s first for the whole season, but Buckeyes had predicted a victory with only 23 points. You beat him by 12 points. So they’re all as invincible as Clemson and Alabama?
Probably. SP+ projects Buckeyes as a double-digit favorite against the other two top 10 opponents (for SP+) – 10.0 points against Penn State, 15.5 against Michigan – and gives them an average preference of 31.2 points in the other five games. Surprises are coming, but for the Buckeyes to play a very close game, you need a lot of surprises – at least one game in the Big Ten.
Counterpoint: Bucky’s lines were not surprisingly impressive.
One has to squint to find reasons to worry about the above quotas, but at least there were small questions about Ohio’s offensive and defensive lines in 2020, and none of them were played at an insane level.
The spaces have actually been stopped three times (although the bags also have to go to the Buy More), and Trey the Preacher and Master Teague III’s back scored but 89 yards on 23 stretchers (3.9 for the wearer). Ohio’s only 20-yard rush came at the end of the demolition season for backup quarterback Jack Miller III.
On the other side of the ball, Nebraska’s run was a lot better than what we are used to in a match against Ohio. Quarterback Adrian Martinez and QB/RB Luke McCaffrey, together for 18, ran for 174 meters. Although leader Deadrick Mills carries only 25 yards in nine, Nebraska’s fast afternoon success was 67% (more than 20 percentage points of the national average), for the refuse collection service.
Now Nebraska is a strange coincidence due to the mobility of Martinez and the strange versatility of McCaffrey. Ohio shot Nebraska three times and limited Haskers to three points on his last eight properties. But the bar for the Buckeyes is very, very high and their game on the line is not quite clear.
Response overestimation: Graham Mertz – Candidate for the position of Heisman
Wisconsin 45, Illinois 7.
Editor’s note : Wisconsin Design Bureau, Graham Merz, reportedly tested VIDOC-19 with a positive result. If confirmed, the athlete should be suspended for a minimum of 21 days in accordance with the G-10 protocols for athletes with a positive test result].
When Wisconsin signed the Blue Mertz breaker in 2019, it gave us a chance to think about what a break in Wisconsin might look like with a real QB star. If Alex Hornibrooks and Jack Coons are better or better than you think, we haven’t seen a real elite Badger Quarter since Russell Wilson, who was a year behind the middle.
Last year Mertz was eloquent and supported the previously mentioned undervalued Coan, but Coan sustained a leg injury in a fall camp – this year it was actually a fall camp – and Mertz took over. Here’s Wally Pippa’s script.
Mertz made his first 17 passes in 214 metres. After Garrett Groschek missed a short passage on the first miss by Mertz, the latter made three more passes before he crossed the finish line in one day. Last transmission line: 20 for 21 for 248 meters and five points.
The plot of Graham Mertz’s first game. Wisconsin has done a great job expanding Illinois and giving confidence to the early builders and then getting ahead of them.
(Again: red = comp, yellow = TD, blue = INC, and I have no control over colors) pic.twitter.com/D2IwuLFNmK
– Account Connally (@ESPN_BillC) 25. October 2020.
Head Coach Paul Krist and Offensive Coordinator Joe Rudolph have devised the perfect plan to weaken the Dead Sea and build trust. In the first quarter, when he was too late, they forced him to throw fast, short steps to Groschek on the right flank. She gave Groschen a few meters to catch them and caught the badgers in the chain. Merz only threw a 9-yard pass in the first quarter – 19 yards in the middle on Danny Davis III, but as Wisconsin makes room on the scoreboard between them and Illini, the badgers begin to open up a little. He completed two downfields at the end of Jake Ferguson, one on the left to Kendrick Pryor and a nice 53-yard overhead bomb to Davis for a touchdown.
Of course, that performance was only slightly related to the second best QBR of the weekend in the Big Ten – 96.8 Mertz was matched with 96.8 Peyton Ramsey of Northwest State and 97.7 Justin Fields of Ohio – but it was everything badgers fans could dream of, and much more.
Counterpoint: Now there’s the movie. And should we worry about the racing game?
Needless to say, Illinois didn’t apologize either, but Illinois was in trouble: Wisconsin unfolded a new toy with a gold gun, and there was no real film about it. Badgers have robbed farms and easily strayed from a few concepts you probably can’t count on to get this far.
If opponents have exaggerated what they saw in Mertz last week, a good game can be used. But in the part of the corridor above there were not so many risks, and we do not know what will happen to Mertz if the difficulty increases slightly. It may continue to thrive, but it could stumble like a lot of well-disrupted red bruising in front of it.
Moreover, passers-by can be a problem if Wisconsin doesn’t start the ball better. Groschek, Nakia Watson and sophomore Isaac Gurendo wore 43 times 168 meters, 3.9 meters each. In 29 top games badgers scored only four times 6 yards and 10 times 2 yards or less. And it went against the Illinois line, which lost all four starters last year.
It will be crucial to improve the game along the way, both because you don’t want Mertz to throw against the best defense of the Big Ten, who are constantly lagging behind, and because there is a chance that Mertz will miss the next games.
Response overestimation: Northwest – Western challenger (and Purdue perhaps)
Northwest 43, Maryland 3
Purdue 24, Iowa 20.
In the first practice of the season in Maryland, the new QB Taulia Tagovailoa made 6 of 7 assists, and Terps shot 56 yards in 12 games and scored a goal of 33 yards. Worth potential protection in the Top 10.
The next 54 minutes didn’t go well. Northwestern scored 537 yards in 83 snaps (6.5 yards per game) for 43 points. Maryland: 37 games, 151 yards (4.1 per game), no points. The new attack by the Wildcats, led by coordinator Mike Bajakian and quarterback Peyton Ramsey, scored eight of his top ten possessions and then headed northwest.
The attack was similar to that of Boston Bajacian College last year: many large formations, a lot of physical strength and a good rhythm. When Isaiah Bowser tried to drag stiff yards between grenades (he had 23 flights in just 70 yards), other defenders found an angle several times – Drake Anderson, Evan Hull and Cam Porter joined forces for 172 yards in just 16 flights – and seven players were caught between two and five attacks.
With Bajacian and Ramsey the Wildcats have two things they certainly didn’t have last year: Personality and competence at HEC.
Counterpoint: Maryland is bad.
According to SP+, Maryland is the lowest scoring team in the conference, and breaking the mounds doesn’t mean that the Northwest is suddenly connected to Wisconsin. But when badgers stumble, the northwest is firmly anchored in a series of potential rivals.
Also at this level: Late.
The rating of the Big Ten Western SP+ :
4. Wisconsin (+25.5 corrected points per match)
30. North-west (+9.9)
32. Iowa (+9.3)
33. Minnesota (+9.2)
36. Purdu (+7.7)
42. Nebraska (+6.4)
75. Illinois (-2.5)
Only 3.5 corrected points per game currently separates teams #2 and #6 in the division, and not only is Purdue on the list after the return of victory over Iowa, but the Boilermakers have already won another team in the given division. And they met him without the head coach (Jeff Brom is now in quarantine) and the best player (Rondale Moore, who didn’t play for unknown reasons).
The Purdue spent most of the second half, but after a late fall with Mekhi Sargent of Iowa, the Boilermakers walked 72 yards and advanced from 24 to 20 yards on Aidan O’Connell’s 6 yards pass to David Bell (13 traps, 121 yards, three TDs). After four misses by Spencer Petras’ quarterback, Iowa was quick on the ball and the little effort was over. In West Lafayette, Indiana.
Counterpoint: The winning recipe is very stable.
My post-match measurement of expected winnings – which takes all the key predictors of the stats in this game, throws them up in the air and says that with these stats, you could expect to win this game X% of the time – saw only a 19% chance of winning Purdue. Iowa surpassed the Boilermakers by 6.1 yards to 5.0, and apart from the 33 yards managed by Zander Horvath, Purdue produced almost no major production. Iowa crossed the field for wild cats before Sargent fell.
In other words: Purdiu was so good. Still, the boylliers are expecting SP+, and in theory they will send Brom and Moore back soon. There are many reasons to assume that the boilers will remain in one division. Now we just have to wait and see if Wisconsin’s interested in defeat or not.
Response overestimation: Penn overvalued
Indiana 36, page 35
Mainly because several Energy Technology Conference teams outside of Alabama, Clemson, Ohio, Georgia and perhaps Notre Dame have shown interest in playing in the top 10 this year, we’ve already seen how many top 10 teams are suffering from disruptions – five have already fallen into the hands of unregistered teams, just like all the other teams last season.
By definition, losing to the voters does not seem to be one of the 25 best teams in the FBS, which clearly proves that you are not one of the 10 best teams in the country, isn’t it? It’s possible. But not all losses are caused in the same way.
Fault! The file name is not specified. – set
Indiana frustrated Penn State after the teams went back and forth in the last two minutes and concluded the game within inches of the next two points.
Counterpoint: Indiana’s victory was incredibly unlikely.
That performance after the victory I mentioned earlier? For Indiana on Saturday it was 5%. In the first three quarters of the game, the PSU fell back only 100 yards and surpassed the Husseirs by 277 (488-211) per game. Penn State made another 11 initial decreases and has a lead of 10 percentage points (46%-36%). In 19 out of 20 cases it’s enough.
Coach James Franklin Nittany Lyons fell by a strange combination of first half reversals, special team fouls, penalties, random touchdowns and the closest goal he scored or not? A 2-point conversion, you’ll never see one. It was exactly the definition of a quiet victory for Indiana, although after so many close games in recent years he was assured that no one deserved such a victory more than coach Tom Allen Hoosiers.
This is not a loss that SP+ will severely punish you for. After the match, the Nittany Lions only fell from fifth to eighth place, although they have to recover emotionally and play twice to avoid being harassed on Saturday by the highest ranked state of Ohio. On paper the GPG is as we imagined it would be, but a 2-0 start would put someone’s resilience under pressure.
Response overestimation: Rutgers is decent!
Rutgers 38, Michigan 27.
In fact, we need to get the counterpoint out of here:
Counterpoint: Uh, seven revolutions.
It’s true that Rutgers’ big win over the state of Michigan – the first win on the conference streets in more than three calendar years and the first win over the team that took part in 24 attempts – was partly due to the extremely volatile sales margin. The Spartans beat the Scarlet Knights by 93 yards and 0.6 yards per game, but lost six times, losing five and being intercepted twice. Rutgers gave the Moscow State University three very athletic spins, but of five Scarlet Knights touchdowns, three were made by spins within 30 metres.
Choose the winner of 10 school soccer games per week. Play directly or with confidence. Make your choice
Let’s not trample on this beautiful story. Of course, this ridiculous turnover won’t stay at this level, and of course, Michigan can be in pretty bad shape. But everyone who plays soccer in college deserves to win once in a while, and now it’s time for Rutgers. Although this was mainly due to the total inability of the state to keep the football, Rutgers played with a credibility we hadn’t seen in a long time and the expected Scarlet Knights win after the match was 63%, indicating that it wasn’t just about sales.
Moreover, few other non-Rutgers players in the Big Ten are currently rated lower than those in the state of Michigan (Illinois, Maryland), even though Rutgers are allowed to play against both teams! Greg Schiano may have started his second term as head coach – 3-5.
In this unusual university football season, a seemingly impossible achievement has already been made: It gave hope to the Rutgers fans.
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