College Football Playoff simulation scenarios — BYU in the semis? Oregon winning it all?

What started as an unpredictable chaos during college football season soon turned into a predictable race with three horses between Clemson, Alabama and Ohio. It goes so far that in the preliminary round of 124 other schools playing this fall, the team only has a cumulative 20% chance of winning the national championship.

And although it now seems that this year’s play-off race has been one of the few chalk pieces in our lives, there is still plenty of time until 2020 to shake our heads and start the season. In fact, there is a 54% chance that at least one school in Alabama, Clemson and Ohio will not make the playoffs.

This season we’ve run simulations 20,000 times a day. Forecaster Plejoff Allsteit then modelled what the committee could do in each scenario. How can it be so wild? Here are some results:

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Paul Sabine, ESPN Analytics1d

Modelling #1

Semi-finals 1: Number 1 Alabama Number 4 BYU
Semi-finals 2: Ohio number 3 on number 2 Clemson National Championship
: Alabama by way of Ohio.

Title: The winner of the title game, Heisman McJones, beats Justin Fields as the four Heisman finalists enter the playoffs for the second year in a row. After Clemson endured the absence of Trevor Lawrence in the fall, Lawrence’s return ended his brilliant university career with another great achievement, but in the end, the wear and tear of Clemson who played three more games made the difference between him and the state of Ohio.

How we got here: Alabama leads the way and passes on the second defeat to Georgia, still convincing. In the CCA-championship Clemson is in the rearguard and beats Notre Dame with 10 points. This is Notre Dame’s third loss in the regular season after Clemson and North Carolina. The committee selects Alabama and Clemson as No. 1 and No. 2 seeds before committee members enter the decision room.

In the big ten, Indiana shoots in the 21. November: another miraculous disorder and defeats the state of Ohio. The Buckeyes are still in the Big Ten, where they easily beat Purdue’s team, limping for the Western Division title, and losing to Rutgers and Nebraska for several weeks in a row.

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Spencer Rattler may bring Oklahoma back into the top 10 after winning and beating Iowa in the Big 12, but two early season losses are expected soon.

In the west, Stanford defeated the state of Arizona with a Pac-12 defeat and ended with a score of 7-0. The victory of the opening season in Oregon will go down as the rest of the Pac-12 North fights it out.

In this simulation there is no unique command number 4. Stanford is an undefeated Power 5 champion, but he only played seven games and some narrow victories didn’t seem impressive. BYU 10-0, defeated Boise State Champion 8-1 and San Diego State Champion 8-1. Cincinnati wins the CAA, but the loss to Houston leaves him out.

The Strength of the Balance Sheet (SOR) indicates that Georgia has the best summary of potential teams #4 in this situation, but the rejection of the loss committee leaves Stanford as the favorite, who got the starting #4. In what is perhaps the biggest frustration in the history of the committee, BYU is selected and then loses to Alabama with three 45-24 touchdowns.

Model No. 6 693

Semi-finals 1: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. 2 Ohio State about no. 1 Alabama
Semi-finals 2: The number 3 in Oregon on the number 4 of the Notre Dame National Championship
: Number three in Oregon above number two in Ohio.

Title: In the second round of the first national university football championship, Ohio defeated the state of Ohio for its first title and the first Pac-12 since 2004.

How we got here: Oregon and Ohio weren’t even planning on playing this fall, but every round to get to the title game. Alabama also wins all their matches, and the committee has the easy task of selecting these teams. In terms of the average level of difficulty and the number of matches played by the opponent, Alabama has the closest schedule, followed by the states of Ohio and Oregon.

As in most situations, the most difficult choice for the committee is to choose between two or three options for fourth place. Every second team in the country has at least two defeats. It’s hard to justify a team with two defeats as a second team in a play-off conference, so the committee argues between Clemson and Notre Dame.

Notre Dame beats Clemson in the first game, but loses next week to Boston College. Clemson lost his second game against Virginia Tech, but avenges the loss of Notre Dame in the CCA championship. The two teams have two defeats and 1-1 against each other, but only one place remains in qualifying. The committee has to choose between a conference championship and a full program as a tiebreaker. In this simulator, the committee rewarded Notre Dame for the victory over South Florida, the School of AAC, 52-0 in their only non-conference match, while Clemenson beat Citadel FCS 49-0.

Modelling # 13 122

Semi-finals 1: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. 4 Georgia via number 1 Alabama
Semi-finals 2: Clemson number 2 on number 3 Wisconsin National Championship
: Georgia number four on Clemenson number two.

Title: Georgia confirmed the committee’s controversial decision by being the first team to win the championship with two defeats, which were followed by a 2-1 tie against Alabama in the College of Football play-offs after the season. Trevor Lawrence goes to the national championship for the third year in a row, but for the second year in a row he goes empty-handed.

How we got here: Alabama will be the first team to reach the top of the final standings without winning the conference championship. No team has been unbeaten in a wild year, and only two Power 5 champions have ever lost: Clemson and Oklahoma.

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Clemenson hopes for revenge against Notre Dame and lost his first regular season game in more than two years in the snowy final in Blacksburg in December.

Wisconsin overcame the collapse of COVID-19 and confidently defeated all their regular season opponents, sometimes with exhausted formations, to take on the Ohio State team in the Big Ten. A narrow loss for a very talented Ohio team, which suffered two losses, does not move Wisconsin further back than Seed 3.

The fact is that despite the fact that the Kentucky Bulldogs played a closed game, Alabama beat the number one team in the return game with two touchdowns, winning the Securities and Exchange Commission. In Oklahoma, on the other hand, a loss is only for Oklahoma. Despite the fact that the Cowboys finished third in the country in terms of 10-1 record power and the conference championship, the committee cites the year of the Big 12’s demise and an ambiguous reference to eye testing as reasons for Georgia’s choice. Is one of these situations going to happen? Probably not, but one of them is definitely possible.

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